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Skagit River · Washington

Mount Vernon Reach

Target: Chinook Salmon

model v1.0.0 · Heuristic Baseline
freshly scored · 6/30/2026, 7:28:29 PM
65/100
Good
Confidence62% · Moderate confidence

Confidence is reduced because recent angler reports was unavailable. The score reflects only the sources that reported in.

Angler briefing

generated · claude-haiku-4-5

Mount Vernon Reach is scoring well for Chinook right now (65/100), driven by strong fish populations up 47% from baseline and water temperature holding in the ideal range. However, river flow is running high at 10,800 cfs—well above the optimal 600–2,200 cfs window—which will make fishing more challenging despite favorable conditions elsewhere. Confidence is moderate at 62% partly because recent angler reports aren't available to confirm how these conditions are actually playing out on the water.

What drove the score

Factor breakdown

Fish counts

+29pts

Recent count 1320 vs 900 baseline (+47%, rising).

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Water temperature

+27pts

11.5°C is in the ideal band (8–16°C).

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Weather & pressure

+10pts

100% cloud, 9 km/h wind, stable pressure.

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River flow

+0pts

10800cfs is above ideal (600–2200cfs).

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Excluded — source unavailable

  • Recent angler reportsweight 8% · dropped

Catch report

Did you catch fish here?

No account, no personal data — just the catch outcome.

Fish-count feed

last 6 readings
5/23/2026now · 1320 counted

Same inputs · every model version

v1.0.0active
Heuristic Baseline
65
62% conf
v1.1.0candidate
Thermal-Weighted Candidate
69
68% conf
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Provenance

inputs hash
d67dda21
reproducible
✗ mismatch
usgs gauge
12200500