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Skagit River · Washington

Mount Vernon Reach

Target: Chinook Salmon

model v1.0.0 · Heuristic Baseline
freshly scored · 10/25/2026, 7:44:07 PM
55/100
Fair
Confidence62% · Moderate confidence

Confidence is reduced because fish counts, recent angler reports were unavailable. The score reflects only the sources that reported in.

Angler briefing

generated · claude-haiku-4-5

Mount Vernon Reach rates as fair for Chinook today, though high river flow at 6,940 cfs is significantly above the ideal range and will make fishing challenging. Water temperature is in the sweet spot at 10.3°C and overcast skies with light winds provide decent conditions, but the swollen water is working against you. The 62% confidence score reflects missing fish count and recent report data, so consider checking with local tackle shops for on-the-water intel before committing.

What drove the score

Factor breakdown

Water temperature

+40pts

10.3°C is in the ideal band (8–16°C).

view source ↗

Weather & pressure

+14pts

100% cloud, 3 km/h wind, stable pressure.

view source ↗

River flow

+0pts

6940cfs is above ideal (600–2200cfs).

view source ↗

Excluded — source unavailable

  • Fish countsweight 30% · dropped
  • Recent angler reportsweight 8% · dropped

Catch report

Did you catch fish here?

No account, no personal data — just the catch outcome.

Fish-count feed

last 6 readings
5/23/2026now · 1320 counted

Same inputs · every model version

v1.0.0active
Heuristic Baseline
55
62% conf
v1.1.0candidate
Thermal-Weighted Candidate
64
68% conf
about scoring models ↗

Provenance

inputs hash
5a765859
reproducible
✗ mismatch
usgs gauge
12200500 ↗