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Skagit River · Washington

Mount Vernon Reach

Target: Chinook Salmon

model v1.0.0 · Heuristic Baseline
freshly scored · 8/31/2026, 5:45:34 AM
54/100
Fair
Confidence62% · Moderate confidence

Confidence is reduced because fish counts, recent angler reports were unavailable. The score reflects only the sources that reported in.

Angler briefing

generated · claude-haiku-4-5

Mount Vernon Reach is scoring fair for Chinook right now, but conditions are mixed: water temperature is ideal at 15.5°C, and falling pressure with light winds should help, though they're contributing less to the score than the temperature benefit. The main limitation is river flow at 6980 cfs, which is significantly above the optimal 600–2200 cfs range and is dragging down your chances. Confidence is moderate at 62% partly because current fish counts and recent angler reports aren't available, so you're missing real-time data on whether Chinook are actually moving through the reach today.

What drove the score

Factor breakdown

Water temperature

+40pts

15.5°C is in the ideal band (8–16°C).

view source ↗

Weather & pressure

+14pts

0% cloud, 4 km/h wind, falling pressure.

view source ↗

River flow

+0pts

6980cfs is above ideal (600–2200cfs).

view source ↗

Excluded — source unavailable

  • Fish countsweight 30% · dropped
  • Recent angler reportsweight 8% · dropped

Catch report

Did you catch fish here?

No account, no personal data — just the catch outcome.

Fish-count feed

last 6 readings
5/23/2026now · 1320 counted

Same inputs · every model version

v1.0.0active
Heuristic Baseline
54
62% conf
v1.1.0candidate
Thermal-Weighted Candidate
61
68% conf
about scoring models ↗

Provenance

inputs hash
40077a1d
reproducible
✗ mismatch
usgs gauge
12200500